1、Public Summary – Short

Public Summary – Short-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2024 – 2025 World Outlook for Fertilizer Demand, Nitrogen, Phosphates and Potash from 2024 to 2025 Public Summary, Chinese version

2、World peak potash: An analytical study

Based on the Hubbert logistic model results, world potash is likely to peak in 2057. Using different reserves assumptions, the maximum production peak varied from 2029 to 2095. The results showed that based on both, Gompertz and multi-cycle models, the peak year is expected in the year 2060.

3、Fertilizer market developments

In September 2024, fertilizer prices – as presented by a basket of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium price series – averaged USD 334/tonne; these prices can be compared to USD 815/tonne in April 2022, which was the most recent peak.

4、Overview of Global Potassium Fertilizer Production and Market Landscape

In 2024, the global potash fertilizer industry has undergone a series of key changes due to price fluctuations, and geopolitical influences. The World Bank predicts that fertilizer prices will fall on average in 2025 and stabilize in 2026.

The Global Potash Landscape: Uneven Distribution, Shifting Markets, and

Potash is a critical agricultural nutrient that plays a pivotal role in ensuring global food security. Since approximately 95% of global potash production is used for fertilizers, it is essential to understand its distribution, production, and market trends.

Global Fertilizer Outlook

With more potash supply coming onto the global fertilizer market in 2022 and 2023, the increase was expected to push the nutrient's price lower. (Graphic courtesy of Rabobank)

From Heat to Stability: The Fertilizer Market After the Peak Season and

Although the agricultural peak season has ended and the fertilizer market has entered a short-term adjustment phase, autumn fertilizer demand remains supported by crop growth cycles, policy backing, and soil nutrient recovery needs.

Yantai Port enters peak fertilizer handling season

East China's Yantai Port entered its peak season for handling and distributing chemical fertilizers in March – an important time for spring agriculture and the start to ploughing across China.

Global potash fertilizer demand shrinks and prices continue to fall

Due to the ongoing financial crisis, global demand for potash fertilizer has been declining, leading to a continued drop in what was once the strongest potash prices.

Fertilizer Outlook: Global Risks, Higher Costs, Tighter Margins

While prices today remain below the extreme peaks of 2022, prices for several key fertilizers are climbing higher. Phosphate fertilizers are leading the increase, while nitrogen products are showing month-to-month swings, and potash is rising due to trade policy risks.

The peak season for global potash fertilizer typically refers to the period of most intensive production and supply, which usually occurs between spring and summer. As a critical agricultural input, potash fertilizer is vital for crop growth, especially during dry seasons or periods requiring rapid plant development. Below is a detailed analysis of the global potash fertilizer peak season:

I. Timing of the Global Potash Fertilizer Peak Season

1. Spring: Spring marks the onset of global potash production. As temperatures rise, plants enter their growth phase, driving up demand for potash. Producers accelerate production to meet urgent market needs.
2. Early Summer: In early summer, warmer weather and accelerated crop growth further increase potash demand, leading to robust purchasing activity in the market.
3. Mid-Summer: During mid-summer, high temperatures and frequent rainfall enhance soil potassium absorption, pushing demand to its annual peak. Producers often ramp up output to accommodate this surge.
4. Autumn: As temperatures drop and crop growth slows, potash demand declines. potash remains active in post-harvest soil amelioration, sustaining moderate market activity.
5. Winter: While winter is traditionally off-season for crops, regions with mild climates (e.g., temperate zones) continue planting and fertilizing. Winter demand remains relatively stable due to these activities.

II. Drivers of the Global Potash Fertilizer Peak Season

1. Crop Growth Cycles: Potash demand aligns with crop lifecycles, as different growth stages require specific nutrient support.
2. Climate Change: Extreme weather events (e.g., droughts, floods) disrupt agriculture, increasing demand for potash, which enhances drought resistance and stress resilience.
3. Evolution of Agricultural Practices: Technological advancements and optimized farming methods have boosted productivity, raising demand for efficient fertilizers like potash.
4. Market Demand Trends: Consumers’ preference for high-quality, safe food drives farmers to use potash to improve crop yield and quality.
5. Government Policies: Subsidies, tax incentives, and other policies aimed at food security and sustainable agriculture incentivize potash adoption.
6. Global Trade Dynamics: Prices and supply chains are influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade agreements, and currency fluctuations.
7. Technological Innovation: Advances in production technology and research improve efficiency, product quality, and environmental sustainability.
8. Environmental Regulations: Stricter ecological standards push companies to develop eco-friendly potash products with reduced environmental impact.
9. Socioeconomic Development: Rising living standards increase demand for high-quality food, prompting farmers to optimize fertilization practices.
10. Cultural and Dietary Traditions: Regions with diets rich in potassium-dense foods (e.g., fruits, vegetables) may see higher local demand for potash to maintain nutritional balance.
11. Population Growth and Urbanization: Expanding populations and urban sprawl necessitate land-efficient farming techniques, relying on potash to maximize yields.
12. Agricultural Modernization: Tech-driven farming reduces resource waste while increasing reliance on potash for nutrient-balanced crop development.
13. Industrial Restructuring: Countries optimizing agricultural portfolios prioritize potash to enhance competitiveness and resource allocation.
14. Policy Support: Fiscal subsidies and regulatory frameworks lower costs for farmers, encouraging potash use while curbing counterfeit products.
15. Global Market Volatility: Exchange rate shifts and trade conflicts directly affect potash pricing and supply-demand balance.
16. Industry Collaboration: Strategic partnerships and shared innovation help companies navigate competition and sustainability challenges.

Note: The original text included repetitive sections (e.g., points 18–30). The above translation consolidates overlapping ideas while preserving the original structure and key details. Let me know if further refinements are needed!